I sat on an AudUsd buy for a few days. You can see the results in my mt4pips account. My account size grew, by a little. The end result was that I pushed up my take profit by 30 pips yesterday. Then, the market proceeded to go to 8 pips before the take profit last night while I was sleeping, and fall like a rock. Yes, it might be in an ascending triangle and it might have eventually went up and hit my take profit, but I already thought I was in the trade for too long. Overall, not terrible and my account did grow, but very bad management of the trade. The trade definitely had good technical reasons for entry. But, the market is not really acting like a very solid trending market at the moment. This particular pullback looks a bit stronger than the last, and it seems like trying to stay in the trade would be a bit on the high risk side. It is a good decision to get out and take what I could get. Some things done right. A lot of things done wrong. I also closed the trade when it was set up better, and reopened where, now I didn't have a great trade setup at all. My risk reward was not very good. I think I can make better trades than this. Even though the original entry was according to plan and a good trade. The overall activity of the trade was terrible. The take profit that was 8 pips too high. The market actually went up and totally ran a solid line on top that formed between the last two resistances. I usually wouldn't make these kinds of errors. Oh well, learn, move on.
So, in other areas to notice. I think that we might be seeing a well anticipated, at least, short term reversal toward the usd. Another good reason to exit the above trade. NzdUsd is forming what is pretty clearly something that looks like a classic head and shoulders. This comes after a fairly long running ascending wedge. Now, a very strong down candle. It's starting to turn into technical suicide for the buyers from my vantage point. I might be wrong here of course. On the other hand, maybe NzdUsd, and EurUsd, are going to diverge. EurUsd is doing something that looks like it could be a bullish flag. If we see a break out of the top and a support back at the line, we might be looking at a continued up move for the Euro.
On Tuesday February 7th, 2012 at 10:39PM by bundabergbear - Like - 0 People
Had quite some bad trade myself. I think the fundamentals, support & resistance lines are running the show now. I am trying to update my gameplan as well. Best of luck!
On Wednesday February 8th, 2012 at 01:30AM by callen - Like - 0 People
On Wednesday February 8th, 2012 at 03:42AM by Brad - Like - 0 People
This particular trade was dead on the mark the kind of trade I want and should take. I just managed it very badly. One thing to note on the good side, I made a good trade pick according to plan. Too often, I am taking trades outside my plan because it seems reasonable, not according to my plan, but reasonable. If I think about some more, I start to realize, it isn't really what I should be trading. I was thinking about trading a sell in UsdCad this morning. It would have been ok, I guess. But, is it really high percentage? Not really. The truth is that, while UsdCad has not broken out to the upside yet, there is a very high probability that it will. We just don't know when. And on the sell side, there is a higher probability that it just won't drop all that far. So, it is not a great high probability trade. It is a half-assed trade. Even if it wins. So, personally, while I am not happy with how I managed that trade, I would like to see myself entering only the trades that are according to my plan and rules that really make it high probability and staying out otherwise, Unfortunately no one is perfect. So, I am not slamming on myself totally, even though there are a few things I could have done better in that trade.
Leave A Comment
Please sign in to comment.