MeetPips.com

Another Update 9/2

Dampening input from the IMF follows an apparent failure at 84p. In short again at 8390. Exciting, innit?

Some numbers:

Youth unemployment:
Greece 48%
Spain 38%
Portugal 20%
UK 19%
Germany 11%

 

Update 9/2

The succesive toppling of the obstacles to the bailout have been responsible for the continuation of the week's uptrend to the successful penetration of 84p. I have therefore taken advantage of the Bank's announcement downspike to close my 8350 trade for the princely profit of one pip. In retrospect it was a badly timed one and had to go.

The underlying trade idea, that the EZ will be unable to fully participate in the global recovery, remains valid and I remain short. If the good news takes us to 85p I'll get even shorter. For now I'm content to have reduced my exposure during this uncertain spell.

Update 7/2

My replacement short order at .8350 was hit in today's Greece-on rally, but only just. The result is that the new short sits almost as prettily as the best surviving one at .8400. Temporarily, no doubt, because there will be future rallies to fade. My worst trade had crossed into the black earlier but I missed my chance to close it. It's target remains at the Jan low.

Update 31/1

The stonking move to profitability today I assume to be a month end phenomenon. I also assume there is going to be a retracement, there always is on this pair.

Therefore I have closed my mid-placed trade at the London close for about 40 pips profit. My best and worst ones survive and I will seek to replace my middler at 83.5-ish pence.

Risks to the shorts that remain seem to come mainly from the SNB but that is a different story.

Pip! Pip!

HP

Update 27/1

Short order hit at 84 pence. The risk is that the airspace between 84p and 85p is filled with new and interesting chart patterns. However with mediterranean results going from appalling to catastrophic, 81p will be next if there is any justice in the world.

=========

Update 13/1

I have set TP on the least advantageously priced of my two shorts to coincide with recent lows.  I am entertaining hopes that the bigger and better one at .8330 might go on to live a long and happy life. The volatility that has enabled me to take these good-looking shorts has resulted from political comments and soft data. One feels most for the people of Greece.

GBP Outlook:

More QE is expected in Feb. FT.com commentary says that UK inflation might fall rapidly from 4.8% at present to 2 or 3% by May. How much of this is priced in? Cable charts are bearish but not as bearish as the euro charts which are defecating in the woods like there is no tomorrow, which indeed there might not be for the single currency.  Hard data, especially the UK unemployment data, out next week might provide another spike to sell.

There is no need to be closing the overall position at the present. If my TP is hit, I'll be replacing it with a further short order.

Pip! Pip!

HP

Update 12/1

I have added to this short at key resistance at .8330. Thanks to BigPippin for indicating the level!

Pip! Pip!

HP

------------------------

Following the poor trade results from Germany a few minutes ago, I doubt the retracement of EUR/USD to the top of it's trend channel, at 1.29ish, will complete. I really need a risk-off trade, preferably a short euro, to hedge against my risk-on long cable, so this is it.

I have entered at market .8260 with an additional short order at 83 pence. Target is .8150. The euro loves it's pennies and halfpennies and the December lows at 83p mark the resistance level. In the event of that order being hit, I'll move the take profit on my least advantageously priced short to break even and let the 83p trade run.

Perhaps we will see a recovery in forex generally in the hope of good news from the Bank's and ECB's interest rate decisions and attendant press conferences later this week. Perhaps there will be a renewed sell-off when good news fails to materialise. I notice that the euro is still above it's purchasing power parity level and sterling is well below it's ppp. Although ppp does not count for much amongst the trading community it does mean that EURGBP can fairly depreciate much further, perhaps into the 70 pences.

I make no attempt to forecast the future and now I have introduced some balance to the portfolio I feel more relaxed about the whole thing. This new position increases my long sterling exposure, so it is far from being a perfect hedge. As long as we don't have an old fashoined sterling crisis, I should be alright. The hard data from the UK lately has all been positive but the air of gloom is slow to lift. 

I still would like a short EUR/USD to round the portfolio off. If a short squeeze takes shape, I'll be ready to jump on it's peaks.