Eyeballing AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY For A Short Term Carry

Published on Monday March 8th, 2010 at 07:52AM by HonEB

I'm currently got an order in play for a short on EUR/JPY. I probably won't be placing any more outstanding orders until my I can raise my current position with the EUR/JPY to break even. I've been checking out the charts on my favorite pairs and there looks to be a strong bias to the upside. I've been playing around with some technical analysis and potential entry areas and senarios that will get me in and out of any trades but I have not yet committed to anything just yet. One of my biggest area that im trying to focus, study and incorperate into my trading strategy is fundamental analysis. Over the last 10 years, my focus has always been on the technical side. Within the last year, I've realized how important fundamentals are but I have not yet mastered how to use any info i get. Currently, Im checking out the week's news calender from Mar 7- Mar13 2010. It seems that AUS home loanes are coming up on Tuesday with expectations that it will rise to 2.1% for the month of Feb from being below expectations and in the negative for the last 2 months in a row. Recently RBA has raised rates to 4.0% which is a postive step the the bullish area. Employment data will also be released on Wednesday and it seem interest to watch with the unemployement rate predicted to remain unchanged and Employment change expected to rise by only 15.3K. The last 5 months previouse saw employment change beating expectation by leaps and bounds... will this make make 6 for 6? In the news (i use freshpips.com) I see buzz about Gold output rising 14% in the last quarter of '09. There is also buzz about a 3bilion dollar bid for Arrow Energy by Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina. There is also some whispers of possible rate changes in April. Iron Ore prices yet to rise and may take the AUD with it seeing as the Aussie is the biggest exporter of the mineral. An important news report set to come out from New Zealand is the retail sales on Thursday, which is expected to rise 0.3% from 0.0%. Retail sales has been below expecation the last 2 months in a row. Before the retail sales list we will see the RBNZ decide, On Wednesday, if they will keep rates steady at 2.50% for the 8th straight month.In the news there is buzz about risk appetite is returning. Also Manufacturing sales has increases significantly, being led by dairy, meat and other food products industry. I'm not seeing very important releases coming out of Japan so this week may be dominated by Aussie/Kiwi Bulls.
  • 4 comments
  • Go to HonEB's profile

    On Wednesday March 10th, 2010 at 06:51PM by HonEB -

    Yesturday my price too me out of my Short of EUR/JPY at the 1:1 level. So pretty much what I gained what was willing to risk. which is great. But it also helps to validate my new Long trade plan on the AUD/JPY. My trade is already in play.
  • Go to buruguduy's profile

    On Wednesday March 10th, 2010 at 07:54PM by buruguduy -

    I certainly agree. I tried using purely technicals for awhile and it never worked out. Discretionary trading is the way to go, getting a "feel" for the market!
  • Go to buruguduy's profile

    On Wednesday March 10th, 2010 at 07:55PM by buruguduy -

    Oh and I think your analysis is proving to be correct... The Aussie went +100 pips already from its week open price
  • Go to HonEB's profile

    On Wednesday March 10th, 2010 at 08:31PM by HonEB -

    Ryan F. Im currently in a long position on both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. lets see where my plan takes me.

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