Good afternoon mates! After narrowly missing another nice Fib play, it looks like the market has given me another chance to play my short EUR/USD bias at a great price on today's news. Check it out!
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.
With the ECB interest rate decision out of the way, I'm taking another stab at shorting EUR/USD today as it looks like I can get in at better price and a nice looking technical setup. In the one hour chart above, we can see the market popped higher today after a positive Spanish bond auction and comments from ECB President Mario Draghi that there are "tentative signs" that the European economy is stabilizing.
To me, it's what a leader is suppose to say to avoid sparking panic selling, so I'll take it with a grain of salt and remember that situationstays the same as growth looks to slow with impending austerity measures to hit the Eurozone area. But it was enough to spark some buying, possibly a short covering.
Technically, we can see the pair found resistance at the Fibs I drew this week, as well as the 200 moving average on the one hour chart. Also, stochastic is indicating that conditions are oversold, and finally, we can see a doji in that potential resistance area indicating that buy and sell orders have balanced
out. I think this will appear to euro bears as a great opportunity to jump back in the longer term down trend.
So, I look to short in this area, with a wide stop above Fib area and have a tentative target at this week's low. Here's what I am doing:
Short EUR/USD at market (1.2828), stop at 1.2950, pt at 1.2665
Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risk Disclosure.
This trade structure gives me a potential 1.33:1 return-on-risk. I feel strongly about the euro downtrend, so I'll look to scale into a bigger position if the market goes my way and trail my stop.
As always, if the market environment shifts on a new catalyst, I'll be sure to adjust my open orders or open position quickly. Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates. Thanks for checking out my
blog...good luck and good trading!
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On Thursday January 12th, 2012 at 04:52PM by Wayne - Like - 0 People
On Thursday January 12th, 2012 at 08:38PM by Brad - Like - 0 People
I'm not so sure about your sell sentiment, with that kind of momentum to the up side, seems like there is a chance we are looking at at least a temporary momentum shift. Not sure why the market would be so pro euro though. It really surprised me because I was all out on selling the euro too. Took a small percentage loss on it earlier, very small as usual. Have a good one.
On Thursday January 12th, 2012 at 09:28PM by BakaPip - Like - 0 People
This move up in price is, in my opinion, nothing more than temporary correction. However, I'm not sure it's over with yet. The EURUSD is right above a shallow support zone, and may bounce a bit higher before falling and, more than likely, breaking through the resistance at 1.256. <br>
Either way, I'm going to wait for confirming price action before I jump on the train.
On Saturday January 14th, 2012 at 07:43AM by beebolbod - Like - 0 People
there was plenty of confirming bearish PA yesterday.
Euro pairs formed clear bullish (Draghis words) price action at swing low levels for quick long profits, and then shortly after showed great bearish signals for great opportunities to get short again.
Easy money on EURAUD, EURCAD, EURUSD selling short yesterday.
Unless there is serious signs that the Eurozone is recovering then i am keeping my short positions open. I'm eyeing 1.20 ish (really) for EURUSD with a view to going even lower.... i envisage ATL on EURUSD in next few months.
Daily, 4H and 1H have showed clear signals for long and short moves over the last 2 days. If anyone is interested i'll post the charts.
On Saturday January 14th, 2012 at 07:44AM by beebolbod - Like - 0 People
Just opinions !!!!!
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