As part of my consistancy trading exercise (See link below) I have done another week of consistancy trades whereby I follow a plan without deviation regardless of results in order to train myself to follow a plan without tweaking it.
http://www.meetpips.com/members/RazorX/blog/56009-consistancy
Here is a breakdown of the trades:
A total of 8 trades taken. 4 sells, 4 buys. 3 winners 5 losers. However the 1 & 2 trades was a moment of inattention by me where I entered a sell instead of a buy, then immediatly entered a buy. Because they all had the same stop and target in pips trades 1 and 2 canceled each other. Had I not made this mistake I would have had 7 trades, 3 wins, 4 losses.
Trade 1) Sell (By mistake) Left on as I had no plan to deal with a mistake in entry direction. I will deal with this as I develop my plan. Loss 20 pips
Trade 2) Buy off support. Successful trade, win 20 pips. Price continued up for 82 pips after exit.
Trade 3) Sell off resistance. Price was only consolidating and continued its upwards move. Loss 20 pips.
Trade 4) Buy off support. Price was now retracing and support didn't hold. Loss 20 pips
Trade 5) Sell off resistance. Price missed my target a pip - you can see the... well I guess its a hammer, breaching the support line and my target, but just missed the spread. Loss 20 pips.
Trade 6) Sell off resistance. Win 20 pips. From here the price ranger for much of the est of the week until the USD figures came out. Price moved a futher 8 pips in the trade direction after exit so not a lot in it.
Trade 7) Buy off support. Support was breached by a hammer which stopped me out but then price closed above ssupport indicating that there was still buying power left. Loss 20 pips.
Trade 8) Buy off support after the hammer. Win 20 pips. Price moved a further 36 pips in trade direction after exit.
Based on the above figures the result was a net loss of 20 pips. Now I calculate the 'expectd' results if I had a 2:1 and a 3:1 ratio.
Trade 2) (Ignoring the mistake sell entry) 82 pips further move after 20 pip exit therefore would have made both 40 and 60 pips.
Trade 3) Loss of 20 pips... but wouldn't have entered because a 2:1 or 3:1 trade would have been in progress. So no loss or gain for the exercise
Trade 4) Loss 20 pips
Trade 5) Loss 20 pips
Trade 6) Price would have never reached 2:1 or 3:1 therefore 20 pip loss
Trade 7) 20 pip loss
Trade 8) Price moved 38 pips after exit so would have made 40 pip win, but would have just missed 60 pips. Would have closed early Saturday morning for around 40 pips.
Results: At a 2:1 ratio net result would have been: Break even at 0 Pips! 3:1 ratio net 20 pip gain. Based on 1% of risk taken that would have been a 1% gain for the week.
At the end of four weeks I will calculate all the results and see what ratio is likely to be the most sucessful.
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