Is the Dollar sell off complete?

Published on Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 12:38AM by dudleymuggins

It is 01:30 in the morning here in Manchester (UK). The Euro and Aussie have both spiked up, there has been a bigh sell off of the USDCHF and also the USDJPY, so the dollar has been aggressively sold.

So do I expect this sell off to continue. No. I think this is the day the dollar fights back. I presume these big spikes are related to Heli Ben's (Bernanke) impending speech.

So what am I expecting over the next few days? I expect the Euro to go up to 1.4200 before retracing back down to 1.3400. I expect the Aussie to break parity and retrace back to 0.9400 and Gold to go into freefall after going to 1400. We should also see a big sell off in equities and the indices (DJIA, SP500, FTSE100, DAX etc). The Yen should also strengthen against all other currencies.

I could be totally wrong and the men in white coats will return to take me back to the loony bin.

11 comments

On Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 12:58AM by dudleymuggins - Like - 0 People

Here is a chart that many of you reading my previous blogs will have seen. On 19 September, I posted the original with my prediction that the Dollar will reach this level before reversing.

Below is the current Dollar Index chart and the move I predicted is now completed. In that time the Euro has risen over 1000 pips. Damn, I wished I had been on that ride.
On Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 04:18AM by Wilson - Like - 0 People

Hi Dudley
This is how I see it. It crossed the EUR and GBP and then went back down.
On Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 04:33AM by Wilson - Like - 0 People

AND here is the 2HR chart

Oct 10-13
On Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 05:09AM by Wilson - Like - 0 People

and here is the another shot od the US index , brought to you from BARCHART
On Thursday October 14th, 2010 at 05:31AM by Wilson - Like - 0 People

EUR/USD MONTHLY
On Friday October 15th, 2010 at 09:08AM by buttercake - Like - 0 People

800 pips ride, huh ?
On Wednesday November 17th, 2010 at 03:48AM by virgiliolayug - Like - 0 People

you think eurusd is gonna head back up? what do you think of the ireland situation?
On Tuesday November 23rd, 2010 at 04:33PM by dudleymuggins - Like - 0 People

Well, this trade has finally completed. The Euro went below 13400 today as I predicted 6 weeks ago. I had to sit through 80 pips of heat when the QE2 was announced, but it has paid off - 800 pips profit. I still expect some more down movement of the Euro probably to 13280 before we get the next up move - although it could go down as far as 12700.
On Friday November 26th, 2010 at 09:41AM by buttercake - Like - 0 People

Nice analysis, hope you extracted some pips!

Europe announced more billions for bailout, is this a kind of QE too?
On Friday November 26th, 2010 at 09:58PM by dudleymuggins - Like - 0 People

Buttercake and Virgilio - If you have read any of my previous blogs, then you will know that I totally dis-regard fundamentals analyis, because I am am useless at using fundies in my trading, so I stick to technical (without indicators). So I really do not know if this Euro bailout of Ireland (and upcoming bailout of Portugal/Spain/Italy) is like QE. However, the strings attached to the bailout will mean govermental cutbacks, which means less spending, less imports, leading to better trade balances, which could mean many things to the Euro. But I would wait until we have news about the other 3 countries before going long. So I am still on the short side until I think the Euro is cheap enough to buy. Anyway, thanks for the compliment and yes, I took 800 pips from this trade. As usual, I was premature with my entry and exit as I really should have held to the 13280 area, because that is where my longer term (daily chart) support was located and it has now busted through that level.
On Friday December 3rd, 2010 at 11:17AM by buttercake - Like - 0 People

awesome prediction, went down 1200 pips, below 1.3 the last days

how many percent of your account do you place for bets/trades like this?