Missed Trade: Guppy Retracement

Published on Monday March 8th, 2010 at 09:18PM by keicadelina

My wrist was still a little sore yesterday so I wasn't able to check out the charts and find a good trade then. Although there wasn't much volatility yesterday, I could've taken another short GBPJPY trade, this time on the retracement.Risk appetite surged last week after the US printed better than expected employment figures. However, sentiment for the UK economy remains grim, which means that the GBPJPY rally from Friday was probably short-lived. Looking at the GBPJPY 4-hour chart, I noticed a nice trade setup that I probably would've taken. You see, I've been waiting to short this pair again after its strong dive from last month... but I couldn't pick a good entry point. Drawing a Fibonacci tool on the pair's latest down swing, I noticed that the 50% Fibonacci level nearly coincides with an area of interest on the 4-hour chart. A short order at the psychological 137.00 or at 137.50 would've been a good trade..

Still, if I had noticed this setup, I probably would've set an order at the 61.8% Fib, which is in line with the pair's top weekly ATR. Hmm. The pair hasn't made a new low yet so maybe it could pull back a little farther...
  • 4 comments
  • Go to IamXavi's profile

    On Monday March 8th, 2010 at 11:16PM by IamXavi

    Hi Kei, I have a question...What S/R levels do you use for this pair? I see flat numbers are ok but not as strong as in EUR/USDNever tried pivot points on this oneMaybe previous highs/lows are strong enough?
  • Go to malkovicht's profile

    On Monday March 8th, 2010 at 11:20PM by malkovicht

    i agree with you kei :)

    chart above are GBP/JPY chart tf H1, it seems that the trend gonna continues, and i would like to see the confirm from my MA before i put my short entry.and my entry range are between 133.00 - 133.40:)
  • Go to keicadelina's profile

    On Monday March 8th, 2010 at 11:35PM by keicadelina

    Hi Xavier R!Using pivot points is probably a good idea but I usually just note the historical support/resistance levels on the charts. Like for this 4-hour chart, the price seemed to consolidate around the 139.20 mark during the first and last week of February. This means that there could be an area of interest in that level and possible price reversals could take place there. Previous highs/lows could also serve as support/resistance levels but I tend to rely on previous s/r levels for entry points and previous highs/lows as profit targets.
  • Go to keicadelina's profile

    On Monday March 8th, 2010 at 11:56PM by keicadelina

    Hey Malkovicht!Yeah, the GBPJPY's downtrend seems to be really strong. There appears to be support turned resistance (turned support?) at the 134.50 level but if the pair breaks that, it could keep tumbling down! Of course there's also a minor support level around 132.50 that it needs to break first...

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