What's Next for The Eur/Usd

Published on Sunday December 23rd, 2012 at 09:32PM by skiilodge

The last week has seen the Euro maintain a resiliant rally as the Austrailian Dollar and the Dow sold off...As the fiscal cliff talks went back and forth the took the Euro higher and on Friday when reports came out that talk broke down Aussie and Dow sold off dramatically but the Euro did not follow suit...Even though we did see a minor sell off in the pair ( 40 pips) the 1.3180 seems to be support in the near term...If you look a little long term then you will see the Eur/Usd finding support at 1.3170 area back in September....what i will be looking for is a bounce to the 1.3300 area and see if resistance can hold...if not then you will see (eventually) a rally to the 1.34-1.35 area on this pair...i am not looking long term on this pair until i see a significant correction but will play intrady swing buys if the opportunity arises...If you look at 1 hour chart you will see a Gartley pattern emerging...I will have to see how that plays out as that is telling me that there will be a bounce in this pair...

  • 5 comments
  • Go to Brad's profile

    On Sunday December 23rd, 2012 at 11:17PM by Brad -

    I was a little surprised that the news channels got it right saying that everything was going fall based on fiscal cliff fears.  The Aud was at a major weekly resistance,  so the move down was not so surprising.  Nzd is probably at a normal pullback of its progression or a natural fall of its value.  You mentioned the gartley pattern.  Can yo explain more? I would like to more understand what it means to you and why you will act on it?  Why will it form? I enjoy your ideas and understanding of the market.  Tell us more.

  • Go to skiilodge's profile

    On Monday December 24th, 2012 at 12:38AM by skiilodge -

    Gartley is a harmonic trading pattern that signals potential reversals in the market...I just find harmonic moves in the market ...they form when moves are in ratio confluence with one another...

  • Go to Pipstradamus's profile

    On Monday December 24th, 2012 at 06:00AM by Pipstradamus -

    I don't see the EU region getting any better next year. So I look for euro to weaken again. 

  • Go to Brad's profile

    On Monday December 24th, 2012 at 10:58AM by Brad -

    I think the Gartley is supposed to be a trend following tool, a pattern based on fibannacci ratios.  I think it is only right some percentage of the time, but I'm not sure what that percentage is historically.  I think it is possible that it could be used as a tool for someone's trading.  But, I have no idea what real potential it has.  Following trends will definitely be in someone's best interest over time, although it would help if they could have some idea where the trend is likely to reverse.  I guess I feel that something like this seems a little more like magical voodoo of someone who found a pattern in history and it doesn't seem likely to be correct that often in a market that will move in a unique way next year.  But, it may be correct.  We will have to wait and see.  I guess I feel there are so many tools out there that someone could use to trade.  Sometimes, I think that giving someone information about a 1000 tools is like giving them just enough information to be dangerous.  I think that if you were going to be successful in using harmonic patterns, you might have to just choose that tool, and trade with it alone.  Otherwise, if you are mixing up all the tools that have varying probabilities of success, you might end up messing up your probability of long term success.  I guess that tends to be why I focus on certain things such as support and resistance, which I believe is a very solid tool that always exists in markets in all time frames, and if well understood, can be used to create trades that seem to have solid probabilties, although, no matter what, some of my trades will be wrong. 

  • Go to skiilodge's profile

    On Tuesday December 25th, 2012 at 10:36PM by skiilodge -

    yes Brad i agree with you...However it depends on what you call a trend ...Gartley is not a added tool but merely a chart pattern for me to recognize and signal possible reversals...I use it with my trading as a "alert" so to speak saying that there is ratio confluence here at this level and you might want to take a look at what price action is tellin you...I dont trade proactively on harmonics but they are very helpful in "my "system"...the thing with these patterns are your profit targets...they dont last forever...i love support and resistance, that tells me where to enter and exit....Harmonic patterns to me are just another tool that tells me where support or resistance was strong at one point...thanks for the heads up though....Oh yea i have no idea what percentage there correct and that does not matter....all i need to know is where the pattern is complete and if i have a set up....if i dont then i wont trade it but if i do i will enter a trade but its not like i am trading the pattern becuase i am trading my plan it just so happened to be around the same levels

     

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