Paolo's Post Trade Analysis - September 7, 2010

Published on Monday September 6th, 2010 at 10:27PM by virgiliolayug

Today, I decided to do some "backtesting" and observed (and track downed) how GBPUSD reacted to pivot point levels over the past month. I figured that because I was trading both EURUSD and GBPUSD, it would be good to keep note of this. 

Some of the things I noticed on GU - 

a) the pair doesn't consolidate around the pivot point so much.
b) Normally, when price breaks through a level, it then becomes a good S-turned-R (or vice versa) level.

While I was happy doing some chart watching, I did miss a really nice opportunity to take a trade today. Cable had popped up at the start of the European session, and was breaking Asian highs. However, because I wasn't paying attention to current price action, I didn't see that it had formed a nice long wick on the daily pivot point. The pair had also formed bearish divergence. With no reason for it's rise, I could have faded the move. 

  

 

So I'm a little annoyed today, but hey, I did get some work done. Now, I need to stay disciplined and make sure I mark down my observations everyday, otherwise they'll be useless. So far, I've got one month's worth of data on EURUSD and GBPUSD. Yes, it's a small sample size, but if I have more time, I'll try to go back further and observe what happened in the past.    
  • 2 comments
  • Go to dudleymuggins's profile

    On Tuesday September 7th, 2010 at 01:06AM by dudleymuggins

    Hey Paolo, keep doing the hard work on this and it will pay off.  However, do not just look at the daily PP and S!,R1 etc.  Look how they confluence with other support/resistance (supply/demand) areas.  For example, if you look left on your chart, you will notice a supply zone just above the pivot line.  If you draw a box (zone) around it and extend it right, you will see this zone and the pivot halted the upward move.  There was also a Murray Math line there. So we had a confluence of 3 S/R lines/Zones.  So always look left at the daily PPs to see if you have a supply or demand zone confluence.  So keep up the good work and hopefully you will get there.

     

    Regards,

     

    Dudley

  • Go to virgiliolayug's profile

    On Tuesday September 7th, 2010 at 03:27PM by virgiliolayug

    Hi Dudley,

    Yeah I noticed the former resistance point to the left, but I thought it would go higher and test the week open price. Plus, like I said, I wasn't paying full attention. A real bummer. 

    Btw, I haven't come across the Murray Math line yet. I'll do some reading on that today. Thanks for the advice!


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